Saturday, May 8, 2010

Yankees Champions Again?

According to one news report, the Yankees have won 21 of their first 30 games 16 times (including this season, 21 - 8) in the history of the franchise (they will play game number 30 Sunday night at Fenway). Of the previous 15 seasons they have started off winning 21 out of 30, the Yankees reached the World Series each time. Of those 15 World Series berths the boys in pinstripes won it all 12 times. For those people wondering that would be an 80% success rate. Therefore, based on these statistics, and the fact that we won a lot of games without much help from Teixeira and Rodriguez thus far, the Empire has an 80% chance of defending their title this year. Frankly, I think that number might be too low.

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Let the race begin!

Opening day is right around the corner and the smells of freshly cut grass and raked infields fill the air throughout the U.S. as all 30 major league teams prepare for the start of the season. The Yankees will come into this season as reigning champions; the first time they can say that since the start of the 2001 season. All the major story lines have played out and the team is set to defend their title and win number 28. Here's a breakdown of what to expect this season.
Alex Rodriguez will move into 6th all-time on the home run list. He is currently in 8th place with 583 home runs but, barring any injuries, he should pass Mark McGwire and and Frank Robinson within the first couple months of the season. He'll likely pass the 600 mark around June and could close in on Griffey's current spot if he has a monster year and no set backs from his ailing hip (Griffey currently has 630 home runs but is suiting up for one more year with the Mariners). Also, Rodriguez will join the 300 career stolen bases club likely by May and he will pass Honus Wagner on the all-time list for RBIs and runs scored. Any time you pass Wagner in any stat in baseball you are most assuredly destined for the hall of fame.
Derek Jeter passed the "Iron Horse" Lou Gehrig last season for most all-time hits by a Yankee. Jeter could retire today and his name would be in Cooperstown but he plans on sticking around for a while. Based on an average of his last three seasons, Jeter should finish the 2010 season with over 2900 hits in his career. It is likely that he will pass both Barry Bonds and Frank Robinson on that hits list to break into the top 30 all time. The sets the stage for him to join the illustrious 3000 hits club early in the 2011 season (there is no way the Yankees will allow him to get to that mark with some other team as he is a free agent at the end of 2010). Now bear with me here: if Jeter, who turns 36 in June, can average 200 hits the next three seasons he will be in 9th place on the all-time list right behind the aforementioned Honus Wagner. Depending on how long he would like to play, he would be 38 at the start of the 2013 season and could possibly be in 9th place on the career hits list at the time. If Jeter wanted to challenge Rose's all-time hits record of 4256 he would likely have to play until he was 43 and average 180 hits per year in the five year span starting in the 2013 season. It might sound like a long shot but his hitting has yet to decline and he will likely play until they force him to stop so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Jeter still slugging away in his early 40's.
The immortal Mariano Rivera will be turning 40 this season and his dominance has never been doubted. He continues to succeed at the highest level with his devastating cut fastball. With another solid season he should set himself up to approach the 600 save mark by the end of the 2011 season (and yes I'm assuming that he comes back for next season). No one has yet to reach 600 career saves although the ridiculous Trevor Hoffman seems to want that record for himself. He will reach 600 this season needing only nine more saves to get there. I'm not one to wish for bad things to happen to people but I wish his career would end some time this next season. I know, I know, that isn't very sportsmanlike and not in the spirit of the game but no one ever mistook me for a saint. Rivera should hold the title of most saves of all-time because he has been the most dominant closer in the most difficult division in baseball. Hoffman did most of his damage with the Padres in the lighter hitting National League. While I'm not doubting that Hoffman has great stuff and is a great closer I am saying that he would not have put up those numbers in the American League. If Hoffman retires after this season, and Rivera does indeed continue to pitch until he's 44 or 45, he should become the all-time saves leader and would rightfully assume the title of greatest closer in the history of baseball. We'll have to wait and see.
Finally, getting back to current news, there have been some tweaks to the Yankee lineup that are worth noting. Apparently Robinson Cano will be hitting behind Rodriguez followed by Posada, Granderson, Swisher, and Gardner. Baseball experts have predicted that Cano will become a number three or four hitter at some point in his career so maybe this year will be the beginning of that progression. Also, with Cano hitting behind Rodriguez the lineup is set up so that there are no left handed or right handed batters back to back (Texeira, Posada, and Swisher are switch hitters). By doing this, the Yankee lineup becomes a match up nightmare in late inning situations forcing opposing teams to bring in more than one specialist to get outs. No matter what, this lineup is set to do some serious damage at the plate.
1. Jeter (RH) SS
2. Johnson (LH) DH
3. Texeira (SH) 1B
4. Rodriguez (RH) 3B
5. Cano (LH) 2B
6. Posada (SH) C
7. Granderson (LH) CF
8. Swisher (SH) RF
9. Gardner (LH) LF
The rotation is finally set as well after Girardi and pitching coach Dave Eiland agreed that Phil Hughes would be the 5th starter for the Yanks. This moves Joba Chamberlain into a setup role in the bullpen which is where his natural abilities translate as a solid bridge to Rivera. There are some question marks with some of the starters, with the exception of Sabathia, like will Posada and Burnett be able to stay on the same page this season and still effectively get hitters out? Will Burnett improve his control or continue to walk batters and throw wild pitches? Will Pettitte continue to pitch at a high level or will his shoulder and lower back force him to call it quits? Will Vazquez be able to translate his dominant work from his last season in the National League into the more difficult American League East? How will Phil Hughes perform as a starter? All these things are concerns or worries that I see as potential issues this year, but if most of these problems work themselves out the Yanks should be in line for another run at title number 28.
1. Sabathia LH
2. Burnett RH
3. Pettitte LH
4. Vazquez RH
5. Hughes RH
Thanks for reading and I hope you are as excited as I am for the upcoming season. Tune in on April 4th to watch the Yanks take on the Red Sox for the Opening Day game of the 2010 season. GO YANKEES!

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Let's put this to rest...

Hughes and Chamberlain should both be in the bullpen. They have both shown that their numbers are much better in the bullpen than as starters. Rivera cannot pitch forever (even if I wish he could) but until he retires the Yankees still need quality arms to bridge the gap between the starting pitchers and The Sandman. Hughes was dominant in the pen last year and Chamberlain was lights out in the bullpen in 2007. One of those two could eventually take over as the closer of the future, or they could eventually transition back into starting pitchers, but the best fit for them this next season is in the bullpen. We can put Mitre or Gaudin in the fifth starter spot and have Aceves, Hughes, and Chamberlain come in as relief pitchers. Aceves has proven that he can come into the game in a variety of roles whether that might be a long relief role, a short relief role, or he can even make a spot start here and there. Mitre and Gaudin are serviceable and could even surprise me with their performance this upcoming season but in the end it does not really matter. One of those two guys can likely win between ten and fourteen games for the Yanks strictly due to the Bronx Bomber's offensive lineup. I am giddy thinking about the strength of our bullpen with Hughes, Chamberlain, and Rivera as the seventh, eighth, and ninth inning guys! That would be amazing and I can only hope the Yankee brass can see what I see in the potential of these pitchers. Only time will tell I guess...

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Spring training update

Spring training is in full swing and we're getting a good look at which prospects are ready and which ones need some more polishing. The biggest story line thus far has been the performances of the five pitchers vying for the fifth and final spot in the rotation. The two biggest names, and the two front runners, are Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. Hughes has shown flashes of brilliance throwing nearly nine innings with an ERA just above 2.00. He had a great year in the bullpen last year but he has four solid pitches and has more control than Chamberlain, all of which point to him becoming a better starter in the long run.
Chamberlain on the other hand has struggled mightily. His ERA is somewhere around 27.00 and his fastball location isn't coming along as quickly as many had hoped. The fear is that Joba will not be able to fully translate his abilities into the starting rotation. The team has spent so much time and effort in converting him into a starter that their front office and coaching staff would look like fools if he couldn't rekindle his lightning in a bottle 2007 bullpen performance as a starting pitcher. Chamberlain's stuff was so much more electric when he came out of the bullpen that, in my opinion, he should never have been converted into a starter in the first place. He has between four and five mph difference in his fastball when he pitches as a starter than as a reliever. In the big leagues, 96-97 mph is much more formidable than 91-92 mph.
The other three pitchers in the mix for the fifth starting job are Aceves, Gaudin, and Mitre. Of the three, Aceves has been the most surprising this spring. He has pitched wonderfully in his spots and his 0.90 ERA proves that. However, I think his abilities translate better to a long relief/spot starter position because he can come into the game in various situations and can do what needs to be done. Mitre has been good but not great and Gaudin has shown some leftover rust from the offseason. Each pitcher will get at least one more chance to prove their case before the season begins. While nothing is set in stone as of yet, the likelihood is that Joba will return to the rotation, Hughes and Aceves will be in the bullpen, and either Gaudin or Mitre will join the bullpen while the other will be sent to the minors, traded, or released. In a couple weeks some of these questions will be answered while others might not be answered until sometime during the season. Keep checking in for further updates.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

It has begun...

Hooray! Ring the bells, sound the alarms, and wake up the children because Spring Training is upon us! Pitchers and catchers reported to camp Thursday and a few others reported early to get a jump start on their title defense in the upcoming 2010 season. The biggest stories that will likely begin to take shape when Grapefruit League games start next month will be the fifth starter pitching, whether Granderson will play center or left field, and whether or not Kevin Long can help some hitters hit off of left handed pitchers or improve their swings. Other than those details the Yankee team is pretty much set barring a disaster or explosion of skills by a prospect. I wouldn't be surprised if the Yanks made another minor trade during or just after Spring Training because they will have three to four viable starting pitchers remaining and you can't just throw those guys in the bullpen. I see either Chad Gaudin or Sergio Mitre being traded. I like Gaudin better and think he pitched better for New York last season than did Mitre. The problem is that Brian Cashman, the GM, has a man crush on Mitre for some reason so he might be more reluctant to trade him. However, at this point it doesn't really matter because I am too excited and stoked to care about the trivial details. It's baseball time people and I can't wait for this next season!

Monday, February 1, 2010

Final pieces likely in place

The Yankees are most likely done dealing this offseason as they have made one minor trade and signed one free agent. The Yankees traded a minor league infielder to the Texas Rangers for minor league outfielder Greg Golson. Golson will compete for a roster spot during spring training. The 24 year old is a speedster and solid defensively. He could be a good right handed hitting compliment to the host of left handed hitting outfielders we currently have.
The other move the Yanks made was to sign veteran outfielder Randy Winn to a one year deal in which he will most likely be playing left field. Winn played the last few years with the Giants and had previously played with Seattle and Tampa Bay. The 35 year old is a switch hitter but he might as well just be a left handed hitter which is why this move confuses me. Winn hit .292 against right handed pitchers and only .158 against lefties. So, rather than signing a right handed hitter to platoon in left field with Brett Gardner, the Yankees sign a guy that can really only do damage from the left side.
While the Yankees do have right handed hitters in Jamie Hoffmann and Golson in the outfield mix, it is unlikely that the Yanks will look to carry five outfielders on their active roster. This means that, barring some move or monstrous spring training, Golson will be sent down and Hoffmann will have to be sent back to the Nationals. We received Hoffmann from the Nationals as compensation for the Brian Bruney trade but, since he was signed and traded to the Yankees, he would have to be sent back to the Nationals if he doesn't remain on the Yankees active roster.
Essentially the Yankees have two switch hitter in the outfield in Winn and Swisher and two left handers in Gardner and Granderson. The hope is that the Yankee hitting coach, Kevin Long, can improve the swings of all four outfielders that remain on the roster so that this concern does not become an actual problem. It would be great if the guys didn't need right handed hitting compliments but only time will really tell what will happen with that.
Updated lineup:
1. Jeter SS
2. Johnson DH
3. Texeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Cano 2B
7. Swisher RF
8. Granderson CF
9. Winn/Gardner LF

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Arbitration News

The Yankees locked up the few players they had that were available for salary arbitration on Monday by giving one year deals to Chad Gaudin, Boone Logan, and Sergio Mitre. Gaudin and Mitre will likely compete for the fifth starter role in spring training along with Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Alfredo Aceves. Whomever does not get selected as the fifth starter will fight for a spot in the bullpen (Likely Gaudin, Hughes, and Aceves in the bullpen, Chamberlain starting, and Mitre traded or sent to Triple-A). Logan will likely serve as a left handed specialist out of the bullpen after the departure of Phil Coke via trade.
One player who would have been available for salary arbitration this year would have been Chien-Ming Wang but the Yankees instead non-tendered him (essentially didn't offer him a contract) and he is now a free agent. The Yanks do have a couple million of dollars to work with in their budget but they are seemingly unwilling to take a low cost risk on Wang who had won 19 games in consecutive years before injuring his foot while running the bases in an inter-league game in 2008. He has not been able to come back from that injury and has suffered other injuries in the process but I hate to see him go after he gave so much to the team for the years he played. This game is a business so decisions cannot be made based upon emotions but I think he still has upside and would be worth a couple million to try and get him back to his 19 game winning shape.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Our biggest competition

Let's see...
The biggest obstacle the Yankees will face this coming season will come from within their division and from a bitter rival: the Red Sox. The Red Sox have upgraded their entire team from their defense, their offense, and their rotation. They were already a good team last season but they have made themselves a scary good team for the upcoming season. The following is an explanation of their offseason moves and their upcoming new look.
The Red Sox started the offseason with a trade for Jeremy Hermida from the Marlins, then they signed free agents Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and John Lackey. Hermida is a solid outfielder and will give the Sox some flexibility and durability off the bench. Marco Scutaro will be a vast upgrade at shortstop compared to the revolving door they had at that position last season. Scutaro is good defensively and can hit as well. Mike Cameron will be patrolling centerfield for the Sox as they have decided to move Jacoby Ellsbury to leftfield due to Cameron's experience and Ellsbury's relative inexperience. Cameron is going to old in baseball terms next season, he'll turn 38 next season, but he has shown little decline in his defensive and offensive skills. Beltre had a disappointing offensive season with Seattle last year but he remains one of the best defensive third baseman in the game. Overall, their defense will be one of the best in the game. I find it hard to believe teams will find any easy runs against them this next season.
Finally, the John Lackey signing gives the Nation the best overall rotation in the AL. They have Josh Beckett, John Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, and Clay Buchholz to choose from which gives them six solid starters. Beckett and Lackey are power pitchers with plus fastballs and fighter mentalities. They hate losing and hate leaving games even more. Lester is turning into a left handed ace with a solid fastball and great offspeed stuff. Matsuzaka and Buchholz showcase multiple pitches and both are coming off mediocre seasons after having some above average success. Wakefield continues his success by throwing his knuckleball all day long. He had some back issues and he is 42 years old but the Sox can afford to take a chance with him. With a plethora of starting pitchers, the Sox could even move one of them to further upgrade their team (likely Buchholz). They match up with the Yankees rotation arm for arm but I think they have the benefit of a little more depth and a better back end. While the Nation's bullpen lost a couple arms to free agency (Wagner and Saito), they have plenty of power arms to supplement any loss. With Delcarmen, Bard, Okajihma, and Papelbon, the Red Sox have a slew of strikeout artists to throw at other teams.
The Red Sox are looking like they might be a juggernaut next season and I would call them the team to beat if my Yanks didn't have the championship trophy sitting in the clubhouse. Either way the Sox are going to destroy teams, win close games, and pull out some come from behind wins and they'll give the Evil Empire (my Yankees) a run for the AL East title. The following is will likely be there lineup and rotation setup:
1. Ellsbury LF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Martinez C
4. Youkilis 1B
5. Ortiz DH
6. Cameron CF
7. JD Drew RF
8. Beltre 3B
9. Scutaro SS

1. Beckett RHP
2. Lester LHP
3. Lackey RHP
4. Matsuzaka RHP
5. Wakefield RHP/Buchholz RHP

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Yankee lineup

1. Jeter SS
2. Johnson DH
3. Texeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Cano 2B
7. Swisher RF/Granderson CF
8. Granderson CF/Swisher RF
9. Gardner/Hoffmann LF

Sabathia LHP
Burnett RHP
Pettitte LHP
Vazquez RHP
Chamberlain RHP

It looks like the Yankees are going to try a platoon in left field with Brett Gardner and Jamie Hoffmann, or at least they are going to head into spring training with that plan. I don't really mind it at all because I like the idea of giving these guys a chance to earn their spots. I think it will give them all a sense of edge and a need to play better. I'm not sure how the Yankees will want to set up their lineup because it depends on if they want to put two lefties in a row or not. Most teams try not to do that because opposing teams can run a lefty out to the mound and essentially counteract most left handed hitters. I personally like the idea of having Granderson bat at the bottom of the order because he sets up some speed for the top of the order. However, it sounds like the Yanks will have Gardner or Hoffmann bat in the nine hole which leaves Granderson either batting behind Cano in seventh or behind Swisher in eighth. I guess it won't really matter. Also, from everything I have read Javier Vazquez will be the number four pitcher rather than the number three like I had thought. I think this might change once spring training starts but the rotation does set up nicely rotating the first four pitchers lefty and righty. I just think that Pettitte won't be able to keep up his success forever even though he is one of my all time favorites. I'm very much looking forward to baseball season!