Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Offseason Update

Free agents can officially sign with clubs starting at 12:01am EST this Friday but I'm hoping the Yankees remain out of any major discussions. The Yankees really have question marks in left field and a few rotation spots and that's it. Most clubs go into the offseason and have question marks all over the field due to a lack of performance or losing players to free agency. The Yankees have a solid infield and minor league players that can step up as backups if the need arose. The outfield could be without Damon, which would be fine with me, but I doubt the front office folk will be willing to replace Damon's number with younger and more unproven talent (Austin Jackson or Brett Gardner). The word on the subway is that the Yankees would be bringing back either Damon or Matsui strickly as DH options and then looking for someone else altogether in left field. The rumors have included interest in Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, the two biggest free agents bats available. The problem that no one is discussing is the fact that both those guys are not really a defensive upgrade over Damon in left field. Granted they will have better arms (heck so does my wife) but they don't track down fly balls well and that leads to unnecessary runs scored. I would hope they consider that when thinking of signing any one of those three guys (Damon, Holliday, and Bay).
Here is what I think will happen by the new year: I think Pettitte will resign. I don't know why but I have a feeling he will. The guy pitched great all season and clinched each round of the playoffs for the Yanks to win their 27th World Series Title. The guy has nothing left to prove but if he comes back he would be doing so with a larger guaranteed contract, not one with a base salary and built in incentives. The Yankees simply owe him that and would not be able to bring him back otherwise. I think Pettitte will want to come back to repeat and to earn that one last big payday before he retires for good. Then again, he could retire now and be just as happy, and frankly I wouldn't blame him or be surprised at all.
So, with the resigning of Pettitte, I think the Yankees will turn to Phil Hughes and Chad Gaudin as the 4th and 5th starters which would put Joba in the bullpen for next year. Joba is a relief pitcher. Can he start games? Yes. Should he? No. He has the stuff but not the mindset. He had electric stuff as a reliever but average stuff as a starter. We don't need average. We need Joba to replace what Phil Hughes did this last season because I think Hughes has a better chance of being successful as a starter compared to Chamberlain. Gaudin is still under contract, and he pitched well since coming to the Yankees, so I think he will get a shot to shore up the back end of the rotation in spring training. However, if Pettitte retires expect the Yankees to pursue John Lackey. No one in baseball would really want to mess with the combination of Sabathia, Burnett, and Lackey if they have everything working. The problem will be his price tag. Since the free agent market on starters is fairly thin, look for Lackey to make some big money no matter who he signs with. If Lackey is gone the Yanks could look at Randy Wolf, Joel Pineiro, Jared Washburn, or Ben Sheets. Here's my vote: Randy Wolf. Washburn and Sheets have injury issues and Pineiro is more of a NL pitcher. Wolf kept the Dodgers in the hunt this year and they likely wouldn't have made it as far as they did without him. He's gritty, he is a work-horse, and he's a lefty. You can never really have too many lefties.
My prediction is that the Yankees will resign Pettitte and Damon and one other free agent bat but not Holliday or Bay. Those two guys are 3-4-5 hole hitters and we simply do not need one of those at this point. Here's my lineup for next year:
1. Jeter SS
2. Damon DH
3. Texeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Cano 2B
7. Swisher RF
8. Cabrera LF
9. Gardner/Jackson CF (This really depends on how well Jackson plays in spring training.)
Rotation:
1. Sabathia
2. Burnett
3. Pettitte/Lackey
4. Hughes
5. Gaudin
What do you think?

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